UAE S&P Credit Rating 2025 Scores a ‘AA/A-1+’ Rating from S&P Marking Strong Growth Outlook

The UAE has retained a sovereign credit rating of ‘AA/A-1+’ from S&P Global Ratings for both foreign and local currency obligations. For 2026, this position supports a clear message to global investors, lenders, and institutions: the country’s public finance framework remains disciplined, and its external financial position remains strong. The stable outlook also indicates that rating conditions are expected to remain steady in the near term under current policy and growth assumptions.

A key point in this assessment is the UAE’s consolidated fiscal capacity at the federal level. The rating reflects strong government-linked net assets, prudent debt management, and a policy structure that has supported economic continuity across changing global market cycles. It also aligns with the broader growth view for 2025–2028, where real GDP expansion near 4% remains achievable through a wider base of activity beyond hydrocarbons.

This period also marks a structural shift in how the UAE is assessed in sovereign credit terms. A unified national profile, instead of a fragmented emirate-only interpretation, gives international capital markets a clearer and more consistent risk signal. In a regional context, the UAE rating outcome aligns with a wider Gulf credit improvement trend, including Saudi Arabia’s move from ‘A’ to ‘A+,’ showing stronger fiscal credibility across major economies in the region.

For 2026 planning cycles, the implication is direct: the UAE enters the year with high-grade credit standing, stable sovereign risk perception, and policy continuity that supports investment, financing access, and long-horizon economic execution.

UAE Non-Oil Sector Growth

S&P’s ⁠UAE economic growth forecast of 2025-2028 of expanding at an average rate of 4% is expected to primarily be driven by growth in non-oil sectors. Despite subdued oil prices and global economic headwinds, the UAE is expected to maintain fiscal surpluses and strengthen its net asset position, which could reach around 177% of GDP by 2028.

Along with the ⁠UAE GDP 2025 outlook, the agency also shares the UAE fiscal surplus 2025 outlook in the report. To highlight, S&P projects average fiscal surpluses of 3.2% of GDP during the same period, assuming oil prices hover near $60 - $65 per barrel. Additionally, in terms of UAE government debt to GDP, public debt is anticipated to remain stable at 28% of GDP, with local currency debt issuance helping to grow the domestic capital markets.

Given the dirham’s peg to the US dollar, the UAE’s monetary policy will remain closely aligned with the US Federal Reserve. However, to lessen the load of the ⁠UAE government debt to GDP, the development of a more mature local currency bond market is still in progress.

Energy Production Set to Increase

The UAE S&P credit rating 2025 report from S&P then highlights how the UAE's non-oil economy plays a pivotal role in its growth trajectory, starting with the Central Bank of the UAE recently reporting that GDP reached AED 1.77 trillion in 2024 ($481.4 billion), up 4% year-on-year, with non-oil sectors contributing 75.5% of the total.

This growth is expected to accelerate to 4.5% in 2025 and 5.5% by 2026. Meanwhile, energy production is also set to increase. By 2028, oil output is projected to rise to 3.5 million barrels per day, with major gas projects such as Ghasha and Ruwais LNG enhancing capacity.

UAE Tourism Growth 2026

Investment in tourism and culture remains a strong growth engine for the UAE in 2026. The country continues to advance major projects such as the Saadiyat Cultural District and Wynn Resort in Ras Al Khaimah, while Dubai sustained visitor momentum after recording 5.31 million international tourists in Q1 2025 and 9.88 million in H1 2025.

UAE Foreign Investment Reforms and 2026 Investor Outlook

The proposed 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum may affect the UAE in a limited way. These products represented about 4.3% of UAE non-oil exports in 2023, with exports to the U.S. near $1.4 billion, around 0.3% of GDP. This keeps the wider macro impact contained.

For 2026, the investment outlook is supported by two policy factors. First, Golden Visa pathways have expanded across more talent and investor profiles, which supports long-term residency planning for founders, professionals, and family offices. Second, corporate tax implementation now has clearer technical guidance and compliance rules, including updates on tax groups, exemptions, and real estate tax treatment. Together, these changes improve predictability on residency and tax treatment, which are two core points international investors test before allocating capital.

The result is a better operating environment for medium- and long-horizon investment decisions. Companies can model cash flows with higher confidence, and skilled talent can commit to longer career cycles in the UAE. At the same time, this remains aligned with Emiratization goals, as labor market reforms continue to balance foreign talent inflows with national workforce targets.

UAE Monetary Policy Limitations

S&P suggests the UAE’s rating could improve if it strengthens monetary policy effectiveness and deepens its domestic financial markets. Also, a downgrade is possible if per capita GDP, currently around $47,000, declines significantly due to slower growth or rapid population increases. Rising debt and external borrowing could pose further risks.

Implications for Dubai’s Real Estate Market in 2026

The UAE’s ‘AA/A-1+’ sovereign credit profile and stable medium-term growth outlook continue to support Dubai real estate in 2026. A stronger sovereign risk profile usually lowers perceived country risk for global capital, which helps both institutional and private investors evaluate Dubai as a stable allocation market.

Demand conditions also remain favorable across major property segments. As non-oil sectors such as tourism, financial services, logistics, and technology expand, employment depth and business formation continue to support residential leasing, office uptake, and hospitality demand. This broad demand base gives the market more balance than a single-sector cycle.

Policy visibility is another support factor in 2026. Ongoing Golden Visa pathways, foreign ownership access, and clearer corporate tax treatment have improved planning confidence for overseas buyers, family offices, and operating companies. In practical terms, investors can model holding periods, occupancy, and post-tax returns with better certainty than before.

For premium districts, these conditions are likely to keep demand firm for high-end homes and longer-stay residential products. For mainstream districts, the same macro backdrop supports steady absorption in mid-market apartments and community-led developments.

Overall, Dubai’s 2026 property outlook remains constructive: macro stability, policy continuity, and diversified growth drivers continue to support transaction activity and long-horizon investor interest.