Standard Chartered Projects 5% GDP Growth for UAE in 2026, Backed by Real Estate

According to Standard Chartered, the UAE’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to expand by 5% in 2026, a steep climb from its earlier 4% projection. Dubai’s real estate market emerged as a critical validator of this projection, as the bank associates the leading factors of the expected Dubai real estate GDP growth surge with strong non-oil growth and expanding trade.

The bank stated that the UAE’s diversified growth drivers are helping the country outperform its global peers and maintain solid momentum. To highlight, the UAE’s non-oil sectors are projected to play a central role in lifting GDP, supported by robust activity in tourism, aviation, logistics, financial services, real estate, manufacturing, and technology.

Standard Chartered UAE GDP projection highlighted that population growth, favorable demographics, and resilient domestic demand are reinforcing expansion in the aforementioned UAE non-oil economy sectors.

The Dubai real estate market’s performance in 2025 reflected these projections. The market closed the year with 255,298 sales transactions totaling AED 652.1 billion and 693,000 rental agreements totaling AED 72.6 billion.

This performance showcases the population-driven growth dynamics and demonstrates the housing absorption capacity required to support the city’s continued demographic expansion.

Dubai’s Residential Real Estate Market Supporting UAE GDP growth Forecast 2026

In 2025, the Dubai residential real estate transactions segment accounted for approximately 98% of all transactions and 97% of total sales value at AED 635.7 billion. This reflects the housing-driven expansion fueled by demographic tailwinds and sustained in-migration.

Notably, off-plan sales represented 60% of the residential transactions and 62% of the value, totaling 148,840 deals worth AED 396.0 billion.

Meanwhile, the ready market delivered 100,617 transactions worth AED 239.7 billion. This demonstrates the city’s mature market dynamics with established liquidity and price discovery mechanisms that support long-term stability.

Dubai’s Commercial Real Estate Marketing Supporting GDP Growth

Standard Chartered forecasted that total foreign trade volumes in the UAE will approach $1 trillion by 2026, underlining the country’s emergence as a critical global trade hub.

The commercial real estate dynamics from 2025 further corroborate this narrative.

Dubai commercial real estate market sales, while representing just 5,841 transactions, contributed AED 16.4 billion in value. This reflects the strategic acquisition activity by institutional investors and corporations establishing permanent operations to capitalize on the UAE’s trade corridor positioning.

Furthermore, commercial rental transaction values rose 9.6% despite a 13.4% decline in volume. This inverse relationship signals tenant consolidation into higher-quality assets and improved rental rates in prime locations. Signals that are consistent with corporate expansion, financial services growth, and the emergence of the UAE as a regional business.

The Multiplier Effect Beyond Property Transactions

The real estate market’s contribution extends beyond direct construction and transaction activity. Its market performance, through the multiplier effect, supports multiple other non-oil sectors highlighted by Standard Chartered.

• The wealth effect generated by property appreciation supports consumer spending across retail, hospitality, and service sectors.
• Financial services benefit from mortgage origination, property management, and investment advisory activity.
• Logistics and trade infrastructure development is stimulated by commercial and industrial real estate expansion.

Together, these multiplier effects amplify the Dubai real estate market’s role in achieving the 5% GDP growth projection, providing tangible evidence that the non-oil sectors are delivering measurable economic results.

Broader Economic Census

Standard Chartered is not alone in their optimistic outlook. Several respected institutions have also shared their projections for the UAE’s GDP expansion in 2026.

The International Monetary Fund expects the UAE GDP to expand by about 5%, while the World Bank predicts the growth of roughly 5% extending into 2027. Similarly, Emirates NDB anticipates growth of around 4.5%, while the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales has projected growth as high as 5.6%.

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